Cubs Poised for Strong 2nd Half

By Keith Glab, Monday, July 12, 2004

Even though the Cubs head into the All-Star break seven games behind the Cardinals and losers of five of their last six, there is still room for optimism. Here are the top five reasons that the Cubs might recover in the second half to finish with a fine season:

1. The Cubs are finally getting healthy

This is perhaps the most obvious reason for the Cubs to finish strong. Kerry Wood’s five innings of one-hit ball on his Sunday return emphasizes this. But it is not just Wood. Mark Prior has been slow to regain full command of his pitches. If Prior can cut down his second half walk totals to that of his 2002 and 2003 campaigns, he could once again lead this Cub team into the postseason. Sammy Sosa comes off a terrific series against the Cardinals, seeing his batting average climb 14 points and his OPS increase by 41 points over those three games. After having missed a month due to a back injury, is finally ready to have his famous “Juggernaut June” (even though it will be in July this year because of the injury). Once the Cubs get Aramis Ramirez, Alex Gonzalez, and Todd Hollandsworth back from their injuries, they might have the strongest bench in all of baseball. Hollandsworth is the only one from that group who isn’t necessarily due back in July.

2. The Cubs finally have the pitching staff how they want it

Yes, at first glance this seems like a repeat of the first reason, since the return of Wood, Prior, and Mike Remlinger from the DL makes the staff stronger. But it is so much more than that. The Cubs have now seen enough of their young pitching to know which of them can succeed in what roles now. Glendon Rusch, Francis Beltran, and Jon Leicester all started the season in Iowa but have come on to make huge contributions at the major league level. This isn’t to take away from the efforts of someone like Sergio Mitre, who generally kept the Cubs in the game as a stopgap starter. But of the eleven pitchers on the Cubs’ current roster, only Remlinger has an ERA over 4.51, and he’s pitched fewer than

10 innings so far. Not many teams can boast a staff like that. Also, of the six Cub relievers on the staff, three are righties and three are southpaws. Leicester and Rusch provide long relief and spot start options from either side. Dusty Baker can finally get the matchups that he wants and use his pitchers in roles designed to help them succeed.

3. The Cardinals are due for a fall

Quite frankly, Scott Rolen, Tony Womack, and the entire Cardinals rotation besides Matt Morris are playing over their heads. Woody Williams may seem like he’s on par with his career numbers, but keep in mind that his ERA rose by 2.22 in the second half of last year. That’s almost an entire Carlos Zambrano higher! Similarly, closer Jason Isringhausen’s second half ERA more than doubled his first half ERA last year. The great Jim Edmonds, over the course of his entire career, hits 69 OPS points lower in the second half of the season. Some people don’t give much credence to Pre/Post All-Star splits, but you would rather see them come up this way than in reverse. The Cardinals have also stayed remarkably healthy this season. This is a team with a lot of older players who have

suspicious injury histories, and it would be surprising if no key injuries affected the Redbirds down the stretch.

4. The schedule favors the Cubs

The Cardinals went 11-1 in interleague games this year. Unfortunately for them, interleague play is over for the year. They are “only” five games over .500 against the NL Central, and thus have been mortal against the teams that they will play most down the stretch. The Cards have also played five more home games than the Cubs have so far. Chicago has taken advantage of the Friendly Confines more this year than in the recent past, going 25-16 at Wrigley but just 22-24 on the road. Those extra home games in the second half could make a big difference.

5. There’s always the Wild Card

Despite being seven games back in the NL Central, the Cubs are just one game back in the Wild Card race. The team in which they trail, the Giants, are so dependent on two players that should anything happen to either of them, they would self-destruct. When the Cubs’ three best players went down earlier this year, the team was deep enough to stick around in the race. Remember that the winner of the Wild Card has a pretty good shot at the World Series. Since its inception in 1995, five Wild Card teams have made it to the World Series, and three of those won it. Once in the playoffs, the Cubs’ biggest problem might be to decide which of their five excellent starters to relegate to bullpen duty.

So it isn’t as though a million things have to go right for the Cubs to make the playoffs this year. On the contrary, a lot had to go wrong in order for them to be in the position that they are currently in. When the Cubs rattle off a bunch of winning streaks in the second half, feel free to get excited, but don’t be surprised.